WHO WINS THE 2012 USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
(This article was originally published in the ISAR Journal in August 2012.)
The 57th quadrennial United States Presidential Election will be held on November 6, 2012. My astrological analysis focuses on the incumbent, President Barrack Obama[i] (of the Democratic Party), against the Republican candidate Mitt Romney[ii].
My tools / astrological techniques
My research is based mainly on eclipses which have been since ancient times the primary predictive tool of a mundane astrologer. Ptolemy wrote, in the chapter on predictions concerning general conditions of countries and cities: »The first and most potent cause of such events lies in the conjunctions of the Sun and Moon at eclipse and the movements of the stars at that time.«[iii] My secondary tool in this research are secondary progressions, measured in longitude and declination, and the third are transits.
Although the above comment of Ptolemy relates more to the natural mundane sphere (such as are changes in weather and natural disasters) and to the changing human fortunes in general, than to individual »fates«, presidential elections certainly are a major mundane event, and even if we'd be dealing only with two individuals who were unimportant for the nation and politics, eclipses are such a powerful predictive tool that they certainly must be taken into account when looking into the potential of a major achievement and/or life change. My research has shown that no meaningful event in our lives takes place without an »intervention« of an eclipse.
To understand the power of eclipses, and to be able to include them in the forecasting tool kit, we must first understand the importance of the so-called conatal eclipses. »Conatal eclipse« is the term I have coined to denote that eclipse which preceeded or followed one's birth and is most strongly related to the native, due to the native chart's close links to the eclipse degree and the important points in the eclipse chart (lunar nodes, MC/IC and asc/desc axes, and to any strong planets in the eclipse chart). It is, in short, that prenatal or postnatal eclipse which resonates strongly with the native. This eclipse can be the one which immediately preceeded or immediately followed one's birth, but it can also be one of the more distant eclipses, especially if that happened to be a total eclipse. Eclipses have a way of »imprinting« very strong energy (vibrations) into the matrix of space and time; they create distinct patterns, so to say, and a large proportion of the preceeding and following time resonate with it i.e. with the quality of those moments when they take place. Meaningful research has been published on the eclipse dynamics by the late Charles Jayne, late L.E. Johndro and contemporary astrologer Bill Meridian, to name just a few most distinct authors.
Total eclipses are much stronger than partial, and all planetary energies at total eclipses are felt much longer then those at partial eclipses – by which the time before and after the eclipse is meant. To understand this we must come to terms with the fact that astrological reality does not consist of singular moments in time, proceeding in a straightforward line. Time runs in circles! If you are uneasy with this concept, imagine every moment in time as a stone dropped into water: this creates waves which go in all directions at once. With reference to the soli-lunar cycles we can say that »normal« moments in time, when they're not in aspect, are little pieces of sand, syzygys are small stones, partial eclipses are big stones and total eclipses are rocks.
Barack Obama's conatal eclipse
On August 11, 1961, seven days after Barack Obama was born, there was an annular solar eclipse at 18°30' Leo, in an exact conjunction with the IC (18°17' Leo) for the time of Sun/Moon conjunction. Since Barack was born with his ascendant at 18°06' Aquarius, which came to be totally conjunct the MC of the eclipse (set for Honolulu, his town of birth), this eclipse is strongly aligned with his nativity and can be rightfully considered his true conatal eclipse. Since the limited scope of this article does not allow for a more detailled explanation of how conatal eclipses influence their »receivers«, let us just say that by this conatal eclipse the solar force – which is otherwise strongly missed in his natal chart, due to his Sun in the cadent 6th house and without an empowering aspect to a planet – came strongly to the fore. Not only that it was an eclipse, it was a very powerful eclipse at that, since it was in a very exact midpoint (8' orb) of Jupiter and Pluto – the combination which Reinhold Ebertin describes (with reference to the Sun): »The successful use of extraordinary physical or mental powers, the creation of magical effects.« With reference to the MC = Jupiter/Pluto (also present here) he says: »Advantages in one's occupation, advancement and promotion, great luck.«[iv] So, this were the energies which Obama »incorporated« with his ascendat in exact alignment with that eclipse. Only by bringing his conatal eclipse into the »big picture« can we understand why this man became a »king«!
Why was Obama elected USA president in 2008?
On August 1, 2008, the year of the last presidential elections, there was a total solar eclipse at 9°31' Leo, exactly on the ascendant for Washington. The north node was at 18°31' Leo – in an extremely tight conjunction with the Obama's conatal eclipse – and all the points which went with it. This way, with his natal »predestination« being so strongly reinforced, the stage for the arrival of the »king« was set. Below is a triwheel showing the alignements.
Can he do it again?
This is a crucial question, of course! In 2012, there are two total solar eclipses, but none of them aligns so powerfully with Obama's chart as did the August 2008 one. The eclipse of May 20, 2012, at 0°20' Gemini, is in an exact trine with his natal Jupiter, which is very good, but since it falls in his natal 4th (of home environment) and is also conjunct his natal Moon, this could mean a change of residence – and get him out of the White House, of course. (Those who were listening to the UAC 2012 panel discussion on the presidential election may recall the Swiss astrologer Claude Weiss pointing this out, although this didn't convince him to give Mitt Romney priority over Obama.) This eclipse was not the only one affecting his 4/10 chart area, of course – it all started with the June 2011 eclipses (a partial solar and a total lunar one) and was followed by the December 2011 total lunar eclipse – they all fell across his 4/10 axis. Eclipses have a way to make profound changes in the areas which specific houses represent – especially if they make exact aspects to natal planets and points. In Obama's case, those were career and home issues, and all eclipses were closely linked to his natal chart. (Take the December 10, 2011 eclipse, for example, which was at 18 Gemini – in exact trine to his ascendant).
The November 2012 solar eclipse is in a square to his natal Leo/Aquarius placements, which also points to a change. This square may be a bit too wide to be really effective (in eclipse work, I take a 2 degree orb with all aspects except conjunctions which have an up to 3 degree orb), and a close look will reveal that this eclipse has a supportive aspect - a sextile to his natal Mars (within a one degree orb), the traditional ruler of his 10th house (MC in Scorpio). Mars is quite strong in his chart, therefore this eclipse could empower him. Still, there has been so much action in his 4/10 axis, pointing to a crucial year in his life when there is much possibility for a profound change, which inclines me to think that his presidency could soon be over. Eclipses can pick you up or throw you down. If you're down, when they »come to town«, they'll pick you up. If you're up, they'll throw you down. Presently, as we know, Obama is up.
Much depends on the interplanetary aspects, of course, which in this case are far from being bad, but to get a better answer to this »riddle«, we must turn to the chart of his contestant, and see what's going on in there.
Below is a triwheel showing Obama's birth chart (inner wheel), the May 20, 2012 eclipse (middle wheel) and the November 12, 2012 eclipse (outer wheel).
Mitt Romney's conatal eclipse
A thorough investigation into Mitt Romney's birth data has been done by astrologers Patrick Watson and Chris Brennan, who published their findings on their website www.politicalastrologyblog.com [v]. Since his birth time data came from two independent sources (9:51 a.m. and 10. a.m.), there is a reason to believe that the data can indeed be rated A.
Mitt Romney announced run for president on June 2, 2011, at 1:16 p.m. EDT in Stratham, New Hampshire[vi]. This was one day after a solar eclipse in his natal 1st house: a formiddable time for announcement, especially since both Mercury, the eclipse's dispozitor, and Mars, ruler of the 1st house (asc. in Scorpio) for the eclipse set for Stratham, were oriental to the eclipse, which, according to Ptolemy, shows that the event will »affect the majority« - the whole nation in our case. Obviously, this important event can be seen as part of the eclipse »scenario«!
Let's take a look at his conatal eclipse. Since he was born on March 12, 1947, the nearest solar eclipse to his birth was a postnatal one, this being a total solar eclipse of May 20, 1947, at 28°41' Taurus, with the north node at 2°32' Gemini. The biwheel below shows a close alignment of his natal chart (inner wheel) with this eclipse (outer wheel) – his ascendant (for the 9:51 a.m. birth time) being in exact midpoint of the eclipse degree and the north node, and conjunct both of them, while his ascendant is in exact sextile with the MC of the eclipse chart. Noteworthy is also the exact trine of his natal Sun (in Pisces) with Jupitor, its dispozitor. Similarly as in the Obama's case, the strong links of his natal chart with the eclipse chart give him enormous power and potential for success.
Romney and the current solar eclipses
Romney's climb to power was accompanied by the November 23, 2011 partial solar eclipse at 2°36' Saggitarius which was in an exact trine to his natal Saturn (2°23' Leo), ruler of his 10th house. This is a powerful link, giving him the energy and determination for pursuing an ambitious task. What's more, his progressed south node is at the same degree (2.5 Saggitarius).
Next in line is the solar annular eclipse of May 20, 2012. This eclipse is extremely important for him, since it eclipses his conatal eclipse – and conjuncts his ascendant, of course. Those years when people experience a recurrence of their conatal eclipse (that is, when current eclipses conjunct their conatal eclipses) tend to be extremely important for them – they actually bring out their conatal eclipse's »promise«.
The eclipse of May 20, 2012, is a fortunate one since it is on the exact (within a 20 minute orb) midpoint of the node and Jupiter. Ebertin associates this with good fellowship, a sense of social justice, and, above all, with »a happy union with a man« (concerning the Sun involvement) and with »a happy union with a woman« (concerning the Moon involvement)[vii]. Since the eclipse degree is in an exact conjunction with Romney's ascendant, it is quite obvious that this eclipse gives him promise of much support from men and women alike. You will also note that his natal conjunction of the Moon and Jupiter (at 27 Scorpio), is conjunct the ascendant of the eclipse chart, set for Washington. His natural aptitude for success and popularity thus comes strongly to the fore.
And what are his fortunes with the November 12, 2012 solar eclipse? The ascendant of this eclipse, set for Washington, is 27°10' Taurus - conjunct his conatal eclipse at 28 Taurus. This very powerful connection is being reinforced by his natal conjunction of the Moon and Jupiter exactly on the descendant of the eclipse chart. What's more, the eclipse degree is in an exact trine with his natal Sun! This link is especially relevant, since his natal Sun has not come into the »big picture« until now, but an exact aspect of an eclipse degrees with the natal Sun means a strong reinforcement of the »solar light« inherent in a native. All these links suggest that Mitt Romney is (and will be) the recipient of very strong forces which could easily render him the title of the president of the United States.
Below is a triwheel showing Mitt Romney's natal chart (inner wheel), the May 20, 2012 solar eclipse (middle wheel) and the November 12, 2012 solar eclipse (outher wheel), both set for Washington. You will notice that the positions of nodal axes are exactly reversed in the inner and middle wheel charts.
Links with the Republican Party Chart
What strikes me as particularly interesting is that at the time of the Republican Party founding (July 6, 1854), the north node was at zero Gemini, exactly conjunct Romney's ascendant and the May 20, 2012 eclipse point, while the preceeding solar (annular) eclipse of May 26, 1854, took place at 5°12' Gemini – the degree of the Romney's north node and the degree of the said eclipse's south node. Those links seem just fascinating and can't seem but pointing to even more force which is accumulating on this side of the electional »coin«.
Obama's and Romney's secondary progressions
Below is the chart of Barack Obama, progressed for November 6, 2012, the day of the election. Mars, the ascendant ruler, is in Libra, its detriment, in an exact opposition to the ascendant and in square with his 10th house Saturn (a loose square to the progressed Saturn but very exact to the natal one!), while his progressed Moon is in the bold and competitive Aries, but in the cadent (weak) 12th house and unaspected. All of this doesn't seem to bode well for him.
Romney's progressions, on the other hand, seem much more promising. His progressed Moon is in Aries as well, but in the 10th house where it links closely with his progressed Mercury (semisquare) and with his natal conjunction of the Moon and Jupiter (sesquisquare). You will also notice that his progressed ascendant is in Cancer, which makes the Moon the ruler of the progressed chart. What's even more important is that during the month of the elections his progressed Mercury (natal chart ruler) will be in a very exact parallel of declination with his progressed Saturn, ruler of his 10th house. (This aspect can't be seen in the wheel, of course, since declination is a different measurement.) This is like »getting a job«. And he is applying for one, isn't he?
It would seem that with the imminent ingress of Jupiter into Gemini (June 12, 2012) the scales will soon tip to the Romney's end. It's not just Jupiter entering the 1st house of a natal chart, it's ticking off all those powerful eclipse and nodal degrees. Jupiter will be transitting Romney's 1st house right until the electional date, giving him a strong boost. We should also bear in mind that all this powerful stuff »sits« in Obama's 4th house, and could ask ourselves a simple question: which house is stronger, the 1st or the 4th? Or: what brings us more success, more resources and more fame? The 4th house is not just the house of the family and the homeland, it's also the house of beginnings and endings. The feeling that Romney could become Obama's »end« cannot escape me.
In the meantime, Venus, Romney's 10th house planet, which is now retrograde, will turn direct at the end of June, getting him more support. Soon afterwards (July), transitting Uranus will close on its sextile to Venus – a powerful aspect due to Uranus' corulership of his MC (Aquarius). In the second half of July and around September 10 there could be some mischief, due to the progressed Moon's inconjunctions to his Neptune (progressed and natal), but there follows a trine with Pluto, reinforcing his progressed MC trine with the same planet (exact in the following months), which should be all the more helpful.
Obama? In June 2012, his progressed ascendant will square his natal Saturn which is his chart ruler (ascendant Aquarius), which shows obstruction. Moon will trine his natal Sun in August, which is helpful, of course, but due to all the support that Romney will obviously be getting in that period, it may just not be enough. On the other hand, Moon will transit Obama's Sun on the day of the elections, giving him much public support – meaning votes, of course! His (precessed) lunar return for the month of the election is also favorable.
If someone asked me who I think will be the next president of the United States, I'd say that Mitt Romney is a very strong rival and could get ahead of Obama soon (I write this article in the first days of June 2012), and that I wouldn't be surprised if he won the election.
Still, this is not a straight prediction! To be sincere, indications are mixed. But to me, as an astrologer, it is more important to give astrology students an insight into some valuable forecasting techniques and to help them with their own »electional« research. This one is certainly not easy.
We should also bear in mind the weird indications of the election date, what with Mercury turning retrograde on that same day, in an exact square of Neptune! Miscalculations, lost votes, frauds, deceptions and last-minute changes could make this on of the most »difficult« election days, especially for Romney, who could, due to his personal chart's involvement with the »naughty« square, become the recipient of the (possible) fraud (miscalculations, lost votes etc.). What's more, elections are held just one week prior to the total solar eclipse. Projects starting shortly before solar eclipses tend to turn out »wrongly«. In what way and to what extent, we'll see, and let's just hope that it will teach something to all!
[i] Barack Obama, August 4, 1961, 7:24 p.m. AHST, Honolulu, Hawaii, AA
[ii] Mitt Romney, March 12, 1947, 9:51 a.m. EST, Detroit, Michigan, A
[iii] Ptolemy, Tetrabiblos, p.191
[iv] Reinhold Ebertin: The Combination of Stellar Influences, p. 177
[vii] Reinhold Ebertin: The Combination of Stellar Influences, p. 179